NFL • LIVE MATCHUP
New England Patriots
@ Buffalo Bills
NE 1-2 at BUF 3-0
Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM EDT. Live schedule and current market context.
TEAM PAGES
Follow each team.
Buffalo Bills
View Buffalo Bills page →TEAM FORM
Current records.
2026 regular-season records calculated from completed games.
1-2
36 points for · 51 against · W1 · L2
3-0
101 points for · 78 against · W3
COMMUNITY PICK
Who wins?
Make your call. Community results appear after you vote.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
What the market is saying.
BUF -6.5
NE +270
BUF -335
48.5
MARKET MOVEMENT
Track the number, not just the snapshot.
We store timestamped market snapshots and show only movement we actually captured. “First tracked” is our earliest stored price, not necessarily the sportsbook opening line.
BUF -6.5 → -6.5
Building verified history.
48.5 → 48.5
First tracked to current displayed total.
Building history
Tracking began Sep 28, 9:00 PM EDT.
MARKET CONTEXT
Turn the price into probability.
27.0%
Raw implied probability from the displayed moneyline, before removing sportsbook margin.
77.0%
Raw implied probability from the displayed moneyline, before removing sportsbook margin.
10:20 PM EDT
Odds move. This timestamp shows when the displayed market data was last updated.
FAIR MARKET VIEW
Remove the sportsbook margin.
26.0%
Normalized two-way moneyline probability after removing the displayed book margin.
74.0%
Normalized two-way moneyline probability after removing the displayed book margin.
4.0%
The amount by which the two raw implied probabilities exceed 100% for this displayed market.
MATCHUP COMPARISON
How the teams compare.
Per-game performance from completed 2026 regular-season games. Early-season samples are small and will become more useful as games accumulate.
MetricNEBUF
Points scored12.033.7
Points allowed17.026.0
Pass yards210.3262.0
Rush yards109.3155.0
INT thrown2.00.7
Sacks2.33.0
Sample: 3 games for NE · 3 games for BUF
RECENT FORM
How they got here.
Completed 2026 regular-season results, newest first. This is descriptive context, not a prediction.
Last 3 results
L 6–35 at Jacksonville Jaguars · Sep 27
W 20–3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers · Sep 20
L 10–13 at Seattle Seahawks · Sep 10
Last 3 results
W 24–16 vs. Los Angeles Chargers · Sep 27
W 41–31 vs. Detroit Lions · Sep 18
W 36–31 at Houston Texans · Sep 13
WHAT MATTERS
What the numbers say so far.
Performance signals
BUF has scored more so far: 33.7 points per game versus 12.0 for NE.
NE has allowed fewer points: 17.0 per game versus 26.0 for BUF.
BUF has produced more combined rushing and net passing yardage, 417 to 320 per game.
3-game minimum sample
These are per-game results from completed regular-season games. They describe recent performance and do not by themselves predict the next game.
MATCHUP CHECKLIST
Where each side has shown an edge.
A quick comparison of verified results so far. This is a summary of the data above, not a pick or model prediction.
SignalObserved edge
ScoringBUF
Points allowedNE
Net pass yardsBUF
Rush yardsBUF
Fewer INT thrownBUF
SacksBUF
Based on 3 completed games for NE and 3 for BUF. Small samples can swing sharply from week to week.
INJURY REPORT
Who may not be at full strength.
Current game-week injury information. Reports are limited to the eight days before kickoff; status can change through game day.
11 current reports
Christian Barmore — Questionable · Shoulder - Questionable for Week 4 at Buffalo · Reported Sep 28
Julian Hill — I.L. · I.L. - Knee · Reported Sep 28
Dell Pettus — I.L. · I.L. - Ankle · Reported Sep 28
Craig Woodson — Shoulder · Inactive for Week 3 at Jacksonville · Reported Sep 28
Jeremiah Webb — I.L. · I.L. - Arm · Reported Sep 28
Greg Van Roten — Questionable · Thigh - Questionable for Week 4 at Buffalo · Reported Sep 28
2 current reports
Christian Benford — Questionable · Toe - Questionable for Week 4 vs. New England · Reported Sep 28
Tyrell Shavers — PUP · Knee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5 · Reported Sep 28
THE THREE SIGNALS
Community • Market • Model
Voting is live
Make your pick above to see the current community results.
Live feed connected
Current market data is shown above. Odds can change; timestamps and additional books are next.
Not published yet
No fake percentage. A model number appears only after the methodology and data pipeline are implemented.
WHY THIS PAGE EXISTS
Make your own call.
Market prices are information, not a prediction. Current market prices, team records, recent performance, matchup statistics and injury information are connected and verified. Verified line movement will appear as historical market snapshots accumulate; additional context will be added only when its data sources are connected and verified.